Red-Hot Resources

"Luck is not chance, it’s toil; fortune’s expensive smile is earned.”

Friday, January 30, 2009

Gold Soaring … And So Is Cost of Bailout

Gold soared this morning, so I feel vindicated, if not fine.
You saw the gold chart I posted yesterday. Today’s chart is more of the same, only with surging volume, as
gold rises to a 3-month high.

That’s usually a bullish sign. The question before us now is, is this a real breakout or the mother-of-all fakeouts? Remember, this is happening when the U.S. dollar is also very strong, and currency markets are much bigger than the metals markets.
I think it’s a risk worth taking. We’ll have to move fast if gold is lying to us, though, so if you’re one of my subscribers, stand by.
Now, here is news you can use for this Friday …
Goldman Sachs says the cost of shoring up banks
could run as high as $4 trillion. That’s up from the $1.5 trillion already spent specifically on banks. Why, why, WHY aren’t we proceeding with a Resolution Trust Corporation solution to this? Like the one we used in the Savings & Loan Crisis in 1989. Instead, we keep pouring good money after bad. Yes, an RTC solution would cost money but not as much money as this cockamamie bailout we’re seeing now, and it would mean an end to the whole mess. Right now, the bailout is open-ended. How are we supposed to pay back another $4 trillion? The US economy is shrinking, tumbling the most since 1982.
And that, my friends, is one reason why gold is taking off.
Meanwhile, California — the world’s eight largest economy – is so broke that
the state is going to start sending out IOUs. This despite the fact that the governator is going to furlough ALL of the state’s rank-and-file employees for two months. He’d better not furlough the prison guards, because once you stop sending poor people their food stamps, what else do they have to lose? I have to think the chance of riots in California is rising. Meanwhile, California is dealing with the worst drought in its history.
Another sign of impending apocalypse —
scientists have invented carnivorous robots. It’s only a hop, skip and a jump to Skynet and the Rise of the Machines.
On the lighter side, here are some
cool electric concept cars. Let’s hope we don’t end up too bankrupt to afford them.

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Check out my new gold and energy blog at MoneyAndMarkets.com

Thursday, January 29, 2009

A Lot Happened While I Was Away

Chart of the ever-lovin’ day …
This chart is just the beginning of the new report I just sent to my Red-Hot Global Small-Caps subscribers, “3 Red-Hot Picks From Vancouver.” If you’re a subscriber, look in your in-box. If you’re not a subscriber, you can change that pretty quickly and act on these three recommendations immediately: click here.
Anyway, I’m back from Vancouver. Here are some of the things that caught my eye while I was away …

First, the Guardian in the UK gives us
“25 People at the Heart of the Meltdown.” It’s a bit British-heavy, but that’s understandable for a paper published in London. But why’d they leave out Robert Rubin? Maybe I should make my own list.

Meanwhile, John Hempton at Bronte Capital believes the
Fed should literally try throwing money out of helicopters. I have to believe there are aspects to that plan that he is just not thinking through.

Now for the story that caused steam to come out of my ears in my Vancouver hotel room. Remember how the US taxpayers have bailed out Citigroup (
C: 4.06 -0.14 -3.33%) with $45 billion of our hard-earned money? Well, Citi turned around and was going to buy a $50 million corporate jet from France.

Citigroup is one of the biggest recipients of TARP funds. It received $25 billion under the original payout late last year and received another $20 billion after its stock started to sink in November. It also got the government to backstop some $306 billion in troubled assets on its books. <>So, naturally, buying a $50 million corporate jet is the only thing to do <>

Perhaps I missed it because I was running around Vancouver like a crazy man, but I didn’t see this story on CNBC. Maybe that’s because back in 2007 — almost exactly two years ago – CNBC’s
Maria Bartiromo got in some hot water for taking Citi’s corporate jet with then Citi-executive Todd Thomson.

Oh, wait, look here: CNBC prints an AP story that
Citi will not take possession of the new jet. That story ran at 8:04 pm the day the scandal broke. Yeah, hot on the trail of that one!

And it’s not that Citi suddenly developed a sense of shame.
ABC News reports that Obama administration officials called Citi execs about the jet and told them to “fix it.”

Now, don’t you go feeling sorry for the Citi execs. Even after reducing the size of their air fleet, they STILL have two jets.

In other news, the
Congressional Budget Office compared the economic downturn we’re experiencing today to the Great Depression. Does that make it official? Someone find out for me.

Now for three non-business stories that interested me and may interest you …

1) Here is some comic relief if you have a weird (gallows) sense of humor:
An Interview With The Central Banker of Zimbabwe. And if you think a trillion is a large number when applied to currency, brace yourself for “sextillion.” I assume the central banker of Zimbabwe didn’t scream that number while spitting blood and tearing his hair out in clumps, so you’ve got to admire his coolness in crisis.

2) It will surprise many leaders in the business community (but should surprise no one) that
Free Monty Python Videos on Youtube Lead to 23,000% DVD Sale Increase. Why does that work? Because no one wants to watch bad-quality YouTube videos for very long.

3) The headline says it all:
Pakistani Taliban Turns Honeymoon Spot into Slaughterhouse. Such lovely people. And yes, that was sarcasm.

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Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Bouncy Goodness

The market has enjoyed a nice bounce today. I find it untrustworthy, considering how quickly the underlying fundamentals are deteriorating. Consider ...

Credit-card industry may cut $2 trillion lines: analyst

The U.S. credit-card industry may pull back well over $2 trillion of lines over the next 18 months due to risk aversion and regulatory changes, leading to sharp declines in consumer spending, prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney said.
The credit card is the second key source of consumer liquidity, the first being jobs, the Oppenheimer & Co analyst noted.
"In other words, we expect available consumer liquidity in the form of credit-card lines to decline by 45 percent."
More commentary on that can be found HERE.

Oil falls as global outlook dims, OPEC stands pat

On Saturday, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will do what needs to be done to shore up falling oil prices when the group meets Dec. 17 in Algeria, but for now it was too early to make another output cut.
Prices continued to slide despite a separate report by Iranian state TV in which OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said a daily oil production cut of between one million and 1.5 million barrels was likely in December. OPEC, which accounts for about 40% of global supply, cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day in October.

Are we watching the death of OPEC?

OPEC couldn't agree on any production cuts in Cairo but promised to revisit the issue Dec. 17. The burden of production cuts would fall almost totally on the Saudis and other conservative Middle Eastern oil producers. That's why the Saudis didn't buy into that deal in Cairo and why they might balk again. That result could leave OPEC standing but effectively end the cartel's power to change the balance of global supply and demand.
In the short run, that would be great for consumers. In the long run, it would lead to global energy chaos.

Sears Holdings posts loss, sets store closures

As retailers face one of the worst holiday shopping seasons in years, Sears has been clamping down on costs and inventory levels to try to reverse a year-long earnings slump as the weak economy hurts sales at its Kmart and Sears, Roebuck stores.
Manufacturing, Construction Spending Weaken

The Institute for Supply Management, a key measure of U.S. manufacturing activity, said its overall index for last month moved to 36.2 from 38.9 in October and 43.5 in September. November's reading was the weakest since May 1982.
Cliff Waldman, an economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI trade group, said the sharp drop "indicates that the rapidly declining U.S. and global economies have created a deep and worrisome slump in the U.S. manufacturing sector."
Ford sales off 31%, Toyota sales off 34%
"Despite some positive news on retail sales as a whole and the beginning of the holiday shopping season, the automotive sector seems to be really continuing under a lot of pressure because our customers are just under so much pressure right now," Jim Farley, head of Ford's marketing and communications team, said in a conference call.
Calculating the Total Bailout Costs
$8.5 trillion ... and counting!
Nifty spreadsheet included.

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Check out my new gold and energy blog at MoneyAndMarkets.com