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Monday, December 10, 2007

Trying to Get a Grasp on Global Growth

Financial Week has a good article and chart. Here's the opening ...

The economies of the world are expected to expand by an estimated 3.46% this year, to nearly $38.9 trillion in cumulative gross domestic product. But the biggest drivers of global growth are showing signs of fatigue. The United States’ $11.7 trillion economy remains the powerhouse, at almost 30% of the pie, followed by Japan and China, with $5.2 trillion and $2.3 trillion, respectively, according to the World Bank.

Over the next two years, U.S. economic growth will likely come in at 3.1% annually. Japan, meanwhile, is forecast to be one of the slowest growers globally, as a plunge in housing starts and construction investment is expected to slow the economy. The country’s GDP growth “will likely hover at low levels for some time,” said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities, who recently trimmed his 2008 estimate to 1.6%, from 2.2% three months ago. The World Bank estimates average growth of 2.0% in 2008 and 2009 for Japan. China’s economy, on the other hand, is forecast to swell by 20% or so by 2009, on top of its 10.6% expansion this year.


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