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Wednesday, April 02, 2008

News and Charts for Wednesday

In sum, we may have a little more downside, but the big trend remains in place. And where is the money going (in the short-term, anyway?) ...

The iShares Financials ETF is looking bullish. Of course, in these volatile markets, you always have to add the words "for now."
And now to the news ...

IMF Cuts World Economic Growth Forecast on Worst Crisis Since Depression The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth this year and said there's a 25 percent chance of a world recession, citing the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression.

XX My take -- if the global economy is really in that bad a shape, why are oil prices so strong? Check out this next story ...

Oil Prices Rise Before US Inventory Data
Analysts expected this week's data to show crude oil inventories grew 2.3 million barrels for the week ended March 28, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. Gasoline inventories were forecast to have fallen 2 million barrels, while distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, were expected to fall 1.7 million barrels, the survey showed.

XX Obviously, that's a disconnect that has to be corrected one way or another.

And here's another oil story for you ...

Output to fall 1.8Mb/d at existing fields by 2021 - Mexico

The prolific Cantarell field, which accounts for roughly half of Mexico's crude output, will make up 1.01Mb/d of the decline by 2021, according to the diagnosis. The Ku-Maloob-Zaap asset will decline by 295,000b/d by 2021, with remaining fields accounting for 492,000b/d. Cantarell will decline by 565,000b/d by 2012, with other fields accounting for a 212,000b/d fall in production.

Worldwide food catastrophe not very far off; 'Solutions' are fueling shortage
In Thailand, farmers are sleeping in their fields after reports that thieves are stealing the rice, now worth $600 a tonne, straight out of the fields. Four people have died in Egypt in clashes over subsidized flour that was being sold for profit on the black market. There have been food riots in Morocco, Senegal and Cameroon. Last year it became clear that the era of cheap food was over: Food costs world-wide rose by 23 per cent between 2006 and 2007. This year, what is becoming clear is the impact of this change on ordinary people's lives.

Gold Gains for First Time in Five Days in London on Dollar, Growth Outlook Gold gained for the first time in five days in London as investors bought the metal to hedge against a weaker dollar and to diversify on concern that slower economic growth may curb gains in equities.

Wheat Rises in Chicago on Concern Planting May Miss Government Forecasts Wheat futures rose for the first time in six days on speculation that planting by U.S. farmers may fall short of an increase forecast by the Department of Agriculture.

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