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Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Persian Gulf Unprepared for Hurricane

I had the name wrong yesterday -- it's actually Cyclone "Goru". It's going to slam Oman and then stomp over to Iran. The latest from Jeff Masters over at Accuweather: ...

This is an unprecedented event. NO CYCLONE has ever entered the Gulf of Oman. And there are no custom 'storm surge' models available for that area. This forecast is based on my experience and subjective analysis of the seabed slope and storm surge interaction with the sea floor. Considering the region has never experienced a hurricane, let alone a strong one it is highly unlikely the loading facilities or platforms were constructed to withstand the forces - both wave action and wind force - that they will experience. Significant damage will occur. How much long term damage, and the volumes associated with it - can not be determined at this time. has good coverage on this today.

Update: Go over to Jeff Masters' Wunderblog to see some photos showing just how vulnerable the people in the Persian Gulf are to this hurricane. They build their homes on the water's edge or even in dry riverbeds! Please send out your good thoughts and prayers to these people. They've never experienced anything like what is about to hit them.

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