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Thursday, January 11, 2007

War With Iran?

A forecast for colder weather in the next couple weeks is getting the credit for a rise in oil prices I think there's something else afoot...

From the Associated Press:

Iraqi officials said Thursday that multinational forces detained as many as six Iranians in an overnight raid on Tehran's diplomatic mission in the northern city of Irbil....

The forces stormed the Iranian mission at about 3 a.m., detaining the five staffers and confiscating computers and documents, two senior local Kurdish officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information....

A resident living near the mission said the foreign force used stun bombs in the raid and brought down an Iranian flag that was on the roof of the two-story yellow house.

XX My take: President Bush sent US forces to attack a foreign diplomatic mission, the Iranian mission in northern Iraq. I’m not an international lawyer, but isn’t a foreign mission legally the land of a foreign nation? If so, for all intents and purposes, we just invaded Iran.

The Iranians are taking a dim view of it. From the article: Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini told state-run radio that the raid was "against a diplomatic mission" since the "presence of Iranian staffers in Irbil was legal."

Can you see how the Iranians might think that we took their diplomats "hostage" when our forces detained them? It's hard to see under international law how this is legal -- it would be best for the US standing in the international community if the Iranians are released soon. And it's truly ironic that we appear to have initiated the very action that we condemned Iran for in Jimmy Carter's presidency - attacking diplomatic missions in violation of international law.

As a side note, President Bush may have just given every country in the world justification for attacking US diplomats, attacking US diplomatic posts and embassies, and "detaining" our diplomats.

So what President Bush is up to? While I can’t read his mind, it appears he is trying to provoke a war with Iran, either by forcing Iran to strike back, or by discovering secret Iranian diplomatic documents that would prove their complicity in helping the insurgents in Iraq. We have three carrier groups either in the Persian Gulf or headed there now. Unfortunately, that small body of water makes them sitting ducks in a bathtub. Their anti-missile weapons are made to shoot down Exocet Missiles, not Iranian Sunburn missiles that fly at mach 2.5. And let's hope our ships have a defense against Iran's new, near-supersonic torpedoes.

You can read a recent article on Iran's "Asymmetrical Naval Warfare" by CLICKING HERE.

Bottom line: I thought oil was going to look for a bottom a little lower, but I can see why it is rebounding today. If this situation worsens – and it seems Bush is determined to use force, not diplomacy, with Iran – oil could go a lot higher in a hurry. And gold, too!

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