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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Commodity Roundup for Tuesday

Copper Falls Most in Two Weeks After Inventory Gain
(not available on web)
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) --
Copper prices fell the most in almost two weeks as rising inventories renewed speculation that mine output may exceed demand this year.
Inventories of copper tracked by
exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai rose to 190,024 metric tons today, the highest since the end of March. Supplies from mines and scrap yards will top demand by 146,000 tons next year, the first surplus since 2002, Mitsui Bussan Commodities Ltd. said Oct. 6. Prices that reached a record in May are down 3.5 percent the past two weeks.

XX Sean's note: I'm starting to get concerned. Copper inventories are rising in warehouses around the world. Stockpiles tracked by the LME alone have jumped 18% since Oct. 18 to 129,475 tons. If this is China just pushing the market around -- and the lack of demand from China is noticeable -- then they're doing a damned good job. Supply disruptions are still problematic -- let's keep our eyes on this one.

Uranium Prices Surge After Flood Closes Cameco Mine
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Uranium prices surged 7 percent to a record after Cameco Corp., the world's largest supplier, said a flood at an unfinished mine in Canada will delay initial shipments of the nuclear fuel by at least a year.

Uranium rose to $60 a pound from $56 in a weekly posting by Roswell, Georgia-based Ux Consulting Co. Ux's price is based on the company's assessment of the uranium market and is widely used within the nuclear industry.
"It is the largest weekly increase on record'' in the 20 years the company has published uranium prices, Ux executive Eric Webb said in an interview today.
Read the rest here:

XX Sean's note: I really, really hope you bought my uranium report. As of yesterday, the stocks recommended in it were up an average 18% since October 3. Wow! And I think this big move in uranium is just starting. As the saying goes: "This is not the end ... or the beginning of the end. This is the end of the beginning."
If you haven't bought it yet, Here's a Money and Markets where I wrote more about my nuclear outlook: "America's Atomic Future."
And if you haven't read my uranium report, CLICK HERE to find out more about it.

GFMS's Walker Says Gold Price May Rise Above $700 by End Year

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices may rise by $100 an ounce by the end of this year and breach the $700 level on renewed interest from investors, Paul Walker, chief executive officer of London-based research company GFMS Ltd, said.

The precious metal could trade between $580 and $720 an ounce in the next six months as investors seek to diversify from stocks and bonds, Walker said at a gold conference today. Gold for immediate delivery traded at $600.10 at 6:30 p.m. Seoul time.

The price of the metal may reach ``$700-plus'' before the end of the year, and may even rise in 2007 to the 1980 high of $850 an ounce, Walker said.

Reasons for gold rising included a weak U.S. dollar, inflation concerns, global political tensions and more money being invested in gold, he said.

Read the rest here:

XX Sean’s note – the euro, the pound and the yen all SEEM poised for a breakout against the greenback. Naturally, that should send precious metals prices higher. But that breakout hasn’t come yet. Stay tuned.

Orange Juice Extends Longest Rally Since 2004 on Crop Concerns
(not available on web)
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Orange-juice futures rose, extending the longest rally since December 2004, on speculation that citrus production will continue to languish in Florida, the world's second-largest orange grower.
Production in Florida will drop to a 17-year low in 2007, and lingering damage from hurricanes, dry weather and the spread of citrus canker disease may limit output for another two years. Wholesale prices jumped 65 percent in the past year to a 16-year high last week.

XX Sean’s note: I’m posting this because the sun doesn’t rise and set on metals and energy. We are in a big commodity bull market – there are tremendous opportunities in the softs, grains and other agricultural markets.

Check out my new gold and energy blog at