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Thursday, June 22, 2006

World is hottest in 400 years (at least!)

You're going to think this post doesn't have anything to do with commodities, but stick with me a minute and I'll get you there.

The National Research Council -- America's blue-chip science policy organization -- says it has a "high level of confidence" that the Earth is the hottest it has been in at least 400 years and that "human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming."

They issued the report at the request of the chairman of the House Science Committee, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y. Rep Boehlert is trying to stymie another Republican congressman, Joe Barton from the great state of Texas, who launched an investigation into three climate scientists.

What was Barton upset about? Basically, this chart...


The three scientists had prepared the chart and the research that goes along with it. They came to the conclusion that the Northern Hemisphere is the hottest it's been in a THOUSAND years.

No reaction yet from Barton yet, to the news about the National Research Council backing up the scientists. But there is someone who's been flapping his jaws about global warming lately: Rush Limbaugh.

Earlier this month, Limbaugh ripped George W. Bush a new one for a U.S. report to the UN that -- for the first time -- mostly blames human actions for recent global warming. It says the main culprit is the burning of fossil fuels that send heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Limbaugh said now White House policy on global warming would be no different than if Al Gore was elected. Limbaugh said: "George W. Al Gore, anyone?"

A couple points...

  • George W. Bush didn't prepare the report. I'll bet you dollars to doughnuts he wasn't even aware of it.
  • There's no sign it will cause any change in U.S policy on anything.

Meanwhile, Limbaugh insists "I don't believe there is any conclusive evidence of global warming."

In the past, Limbaugh has also wondered aloud if the Earth may be COOLING. What evidence is he looking at then?

You know who Limbaugh reminds me of? Kent Brockman, the TV "anchorman" on the Simpsons. You remember the Simpsons episode where Homer (through a serious of hilarious events) ends up on the space shuttle? News announcer Kent Brockman mistakes a floating ant in a space shuttle experiment floating close to the camera for a giant space ant. He then says:

"Ladies and gentlemen, uh, we've just lost the picture, but what we've seen speaks for itself. The Corvair spacecraft has apparently been taken over -- 'conquered' if you will -- by a master race of giant space ants. It's difficult to tell from this vantage point whether they will consume the captive earth men or merely enslave them. One thing is for certain: there is no stopping them; the ants will soon be here. And I for one welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves."

So how does this relate to commodities?

Global warming will not only have a serious impact on glaciers and so on, it's also going to affect commodities. Certain energy sectors should do very well as nations try to come to grips with lower greenhouse gas emissions. Prices of grains could soar if heat waves hurt global harvests. Timber companies are going to have to come to grips with this, as are insurance companies, and entire cities on the Gulf of Mexico and Florida coast.

These are all challenges. But many challenges can also be opportunities.

Best of all, we have some time here -- you don't have to run out and invest for global warming right now. You can do your research.

So let the Limbaughs of the world stay in denial. We need them to take the other sides of our trades.

Check out my new gold and energy blog at MoneyAndMarkets.com