Hurricanes Part 2: Heaven Help Us, They’re Optimists!

I was intrigued by the note that my co-worker Mike Larson sent me with the University of Colorado’s forecast for the Hurricane season of 2006.

Their prediction was “17 total named storms (canes and tropical storms -- almost twice the long-term average). Canes: 9 (vs. 5.9 LT average) Intense Canes: 5 (more than double the 2.3 average)”

Well, I went back and looked at what they predicted for 2005. It turns out they’re optimists!

This story from CNN in May of 2005 says the Colorado team predicted the 2005 hurricane season would be "very active" with 15 named tropical storms and eight hurricanes. Half of those hurricanes would be intense (Category 3 or above).

Not quite. The official NOAA summary of the 2005 hurricane season reveals ...

“There were a record 27 named storms, of which 14 were hurricanes, exceeding the 1969 record of 12 hurricanes, and 7 were major hurricanes. Of the 7 major hurricanes, an unprecedented 3 reached category 5 status, with a 4th reaching the greatest possible windspeed within category 4 of the Saffir-Simpson scale.”

So if the Colorado boys are low-balling this year the way they did last year ... oh, dang it!

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