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Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Are You Ready for Hurricane Season? FEMA Isn't

Hurricanes are a big drivers of prices in at least two commodity sectors, energy and precious metals. Building materials like copper probably are influenced as well. A new hurricane season starts in June. In fact, NOW is a good time to take positions in stocks that might be influenced by hurricanes.

Also, those of us who live in Florida tend to obsess about hurricanes. We're all getting prepared now. All of us, that is, except FEMA.

According to CBS, "A former chief of staff says the agency is even worse off today than it was when Katrina stormed ashore late last August. "

Sigh. Why am I not surprised.

And just in case you thought last season's horrific volume of hurricanes was a fluke, think again. I'll publish more another time about how global warming is raising the ocean's surface temperature, therefore making hurricanes more frequent and more intense. For now, I'll quote my co-worker Mike Larson, who writes the Interest Rate Roundup Blog. He knows more about interest rates than anyone you'll ever meet, but he's also a crackerjack hurricane tracker and forecaster.

Mike emailed me yesterday to say:

"The Colorado State University guys just released their hurricane season forecast for 2006. Here is a press release on the subject. The key point - 17 total named storms (canes and tropical storms -- almost twice the long-term average). Canes: 9 (vs. 5.9 LT average) Intense Canes: 5 (more than double the 2.3 average)"

You can read the bad news yourself here... http://tinyurl.com/hg37y



Check out my new gold and energy blog at MoneyAndMarkets.com