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Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Director's Cut of "Seeds of Change"

My latest column, "Seeds of Change," is posted today. You can read it by pointing your browser at this link: http://tinyurl.com/etamk

The editing process on this one was not as painful as others (for example, last week's copper column). Still, a few things were left out. One would be this chart...

I'm not sure why that didn't make the cut. The other is this passage...

Droughts and falling crop yields are just one way global warming affects us. Other ways include…

Ravaged forests. In Canada especially, millions of acres of green forests have died as the population of a voracious beetle has expanded with global warming. US forests are also under assault, not only from bugs but also from worsening forest fires.

Disappearing glaciers. America’s Glacier National Park – which once boasted 150 glaciers -- won't have so much as an ice cube by 2030 unless something is done to reverse the warming trend.

Dying polar bears. The Arctic ice cap is melting so quickly that polar bears find themselves too far from land to swim to safety. Hundreds have drowned in the last two years. That’s only the tip of the iceberg of the ecological effects that are taking place at the top of the world. Another is that glaciers in Greenland are moving toward the sea at speeds that are astounding scientists.

Rising sea levels. Parts of Antarctica have warmed as much as 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit in recent decades. In the last couple years, two chunks of ice bigger than Rhode Island have fallen off the Larsen Ice Shelf. If enough ice melts in Antarctica, places like Florida, New Orleans, Manhattan and parts of Virginia are going to drown.

But that will take centuries, right? That’s what scientists used to think. Geologist Richard Alley, quoted in a British newspaper explains: “"We used to think that it would take 10,000 years for melting at the surface of an ice sheet to penetrate down to the bottom. Now we know it doesn't take 10,000 years; it takes 10 seconds."

The water travels through cracks and crevices to the base of the ice sheet, where it pools and lubricates between ice and rock. Then the whole ice sheet starts to float downhill towards the ocean. And that explains why Greenland glaciers are flowing like Speed Racer toward the sea. We may not have centuries before the water laps at our doorsteps.

Some scientists say we have about a decade or so to turn things around. Humans are loading up the atmosphere with greenhouse gases; these gases trap heat. If we don’t at least take some positive steps in the next decade, eventually Florida will drown and Texas will fry.

Check out my new gold and energy blog at MoneyAndMarkets.com