When Does Hurricane Season Really Start?

If you're living in the path of a potentially active hurricane season (me) or run your car on oil that comes from the Gulf of Mexico (just about everybody) that's a question on your mind: When does hurricane season really start? We know it's June, but when in June?

The envelope please...

The earliest killer hurricane on record was Hurricane Agnes, which was first detected over the Yucatan Penninsula on June 14, 1972. Agnes killed 129 people, most from flooding. Agnes flooded so much fresh water into the Cheseapeake that the local seafood industry was crippled for years.

Agnes was unusually early. In fact, even the last week of June is considered early.

That's when Hurricane Bertha formed in the Eastern Atlantic in 1966. It made landfall as a category two storm in North Carolina. Bertha killed 12 people and caused a lot of damage.

Hurricane Audrey formed in the Gulf of Mexico in 1957 in the last week of June. It slammed into Texas and Louisiana as a Category 4 storm. Audrey killed 390 people, partly due to its 12-foot storm surge. Until Hurricane Katrina hit last year, Audrey held the dubious record for most deaths caused by a hurricane. Audrey formed in the Gulf so hard and quick because the water was warmer than normal.

Hold that thought...

Check out the warm water anomolies on this map of sea surface temperatures in the most recent week:

Do you see where a lot of the hot spots are cropping up? The Gulf of Mexico!

One last chart -- this is an animated one showing weekly sea surface temperatures. Look how the Gulf of Mexico is warming up like a cauldron on the stove.

Looking at that chart, would it surprise you to see a hurricane form in the Gulf of Mexico in the middle of June?

It wouldn't surprise me. Let's hope for the best, but prepare early.

And my sincere best wishes that you dodge any potential bullets go out to everyone who lives in Louisiana and the Texas Coast.

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