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Monday, October 20, 2008

Oil and Gold Charts and Monday News

Here are some things to keep your eye on ...


Oil cartel calls meeting as prices tumble Analysts said the overall market trend was bearish and noted that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had decided to hold a special meeting next Friday - instead of in November - to discuss the global financial crisis and its impact on the market. The thought of oil prices falling back to $US40 or $US50 a barrel in a slowing global economy is terrifying to the OPEC members, Mr Ernsberger said, predicting they may be tempted to make a production cut "that is very bullish".

XX Sean’s note – oil prices will probably rally into the meeting, but any cut should be priced in by then.

Oil Options Point to $50 Crude as OPEC Prepares for First Cut Since 2000 OPEC, the supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, plans to cut output for the first time in almost two years as the worst financial crisis since the 1930s sends crude toward $50 a barrel.


China's Economy Grows 9%, Slowest Pace in Five Years, on Financial Turmoil China's economy grew 9 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in five years, underscoring concern that the spreading financial crisis threatens the biggest contributor to global growth.

World Bank Forecasts China Growth Slowdown
As the markets for its exports in Europe and the U.S. shrink, the World Bank's senior Beijing-based economist said that the nation's economic growth would slow. Banks are topped up with cash and have strict capital controls. The nation's companies tap stock markets less for capital. The bank's forecast for 2008 remains at 9.8% growth and for 2009 it's sticking to a 9.2% rate--healthy in most other nations of the world.

Widespread commodity forecast cut, but healthy rebound expected post-recession Slowing growth in China and a recession in the developed world means metal markets are much more likely to move into significant surpluses in 2009 and 2010. As a result, RBC Capital Markets has made widespread cuts to its commodity price forecasts – everything from iron ore and coal to uranium and copper. But by 2010, RBC Capital Markets expects a boost in demand. This after analysis of the past nearly 50 years and the associated six recessions. It noted the decline for each commodity and ensuing recovery.

Gold Climbs From One-Month Low as Dollar Weakens Before Bernanke's Speech Gold rose in London as a weakening dollar increased the metal's allure as an alternative asset.

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