Monday Morning Charts

It’s really make-or-break time for the CRB. That said, the 61% retracement is a good place to bounce, and pullback to this level is quite normal in a commodity bull market.

Oil should be bouncing a lot more than it is with a Category 3 hurricane headed toward Energy Alley. This is indicative of the extreme pessimism in the market right now. Let’s see how the week plays out.

Gold also isn’t getting much of a break despite news of a big ramp-up in buying in India. Hmm …

Here is some news you can use.

OIL

Oil Rebounds From Five-Month Low as Ike Nears; Gold, Wheat, Copper Gain Crude oil and copper led gains in commodities as Hurricane Ike threatened rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bolstered investors' expectations for growth.

Mexico Government Will Probably Set Oil Price at $80 Per Barrel in Budget Mexico, the second-biggest oil producer in the Western Hemisphere, will probably assume its crude exports will sell for $80 a barrel next year in a budget proposal the government plans to submit to Congress today.

OPEC to Pump Near Record Amounts of Crude as $106 Oil Price Stunts Growth OPEC, the supplier of 40 percent of the world's oil, will probably keep producing at a near record pace as $107-a-barrel crude squeezes the global economy.

Saudi crude price hikes may offer OPEC production hints

Its latest term crude prices suggest state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co (Saudi Aramco), may be starting to price in a period of lower output, even if OPEC next week doesn’t formally sign off on a production cut.

NATURAL GAS

Origin Says $8 Billion Conoco Gas Agreement Justifies Rejection of BG Bid Origin Energy Ltd., Australia's biggest producer of natural gas from coal seams, said an $8 billion transaction with ConocoPhillips ``more than justifies'' its rejection of a hostile takeover offer from BG Group Plc.

XX Sean’s note: Red-Hot Global Small Caps subscribers have one of these Aussie coal-seam gas companies in their portfolio – and it shot up 30% today, the biggest move in 3 ½ years. Why? Because this Origin deal is upping the ante on Australian coal-seam gas.

URANIUM

Energy, Toro Shares Rise in Sydney on Optimism Uranium Mining Ban May End Energy & Minerals Australia Ltd. and Toro Energy Ltd. led gains by uranium explorers in Western Australia on optimism the Liberal Party may win government after the weekend's state election and allow mining of the nuclear fuel.

US ECONOMY

Weekend Bailouts and Subsequent Market Reactions

Three observations/questions/takeaways from the past of weekend rescues history:

1. A strong rally lasts for a while, but it eventually fades and makes a new lower low; Each rally has been shorter in duration and weaker in intensity than the previous one;

2. The pre-Asian open news pattern reveals the Asset price focus is a large part of these issues;

3. What form of free markets have we evolved into? Its not Capitalism, its not Socialism, its not intelligent regulation. WTF is this??

Bank Insiders Step Up Purchases of Their Own Stock to Most in Two Decades Bank and savings and loan insiders spent more money buying shares of their companies in May, June and July this year than in any previous three months in at least two decades, betting that financial institutions are bouncing back from the credit-market crunch.

Paulson Bets He Can Do What Eluded Fed: Get Banks to Lend in Down Economy Henry Paulson is making a colossal bet that the U.S. Treasury can do what Ben S. Bernanke's Federal Reserve failed to do: Get banks to lend more freely when the deteriorating economy is still telling them to hold back.

GOLD

India’s gold imports jump 45%

India’s gold imports in August jumped 45 percent from a year ago, the first annual rise this year, as lower prices and upcoming festivals drove demand in the world’s leading consumer, a trade body chief said.

Check out my new gold and energy blog at MoneyAndMarkets.com